Derren Brown Debunks Astrology

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Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
Derren Brown gives readings via "astrology." From "Trick of the Mind," S03E01.

Astrology relies heavily on the Barnum and Forer effect, which are statements that can apply to anybody.
Aug 27, 2007 12:53 AM
Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
why are the majority of the respondents female?
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
It has seemed to me in my very unscientific experiences in life that women, at least in our society, are more likely to believe in destiny or anything about "it was meant to be!" especially in relationships.
By: McCorvic
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
Perhaps they are more likely to believe their readings if they feel slightly attracted to him? He puts on quite a show and certainly dresses well.
By: Hummm
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
perhaps, but probably not.

I remember some oldish american guy doing a similar experiment with a class of similarly aged students. He was the head of some american sceptics association - who were offering a million $ award to anyone who could prove any kind of paranormal... thing.

anyway, he was oldish and uglyish, definitely not a charmer - but he got similar results.
By: gypo
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
That would be James Randi
By: Tensen01
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
I've met Randi, and in person he's quite a charmer. Intelligent, personable and funny! Randi's famous for debunking, and has been very successful both on his own and in conjunction with skeptics organizations.

The $million offer still stands. It requires that anyone claiming they've got a paranormal ability go through standardizing scientific testing. (Do whatever you do with props not provided by you, in a laboratory setting, with observing instrumentation) He's had very few takers. 309 weeks ago Sylvia Browne agreed to be tested while on the Larry King show - she's yet to follow through with the agreement.
By: catgrin
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
You ever flip through one of those cosmopolitan mags? Pick any of the ladies mags. Flip through it. Try to avoid the Horoscope. In some of those mags, its over 2 pages long.
By: meat
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
I mean, this is proof that all women are gullible!
By: meat
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
I mean Im a sexist pig!
By: meat
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
Nah, you've just been lulled into believing that women are weak and foolish by our rigid childhood training that makes us act the fool.

I actually tested this not too long ago. I was visiting a friend and neither her boyfriend or his friend could open a pickle jar. After they both gave up, I offered to, and they laughed, handed me the jar, then condescendingly said, "go ahead and try." I wiped any oil off the lid and my hands, cupped my hands to my face, breathed on them to get a thin coating of water, and magically twisted the cap right off. They both acted like it was an insult that I'd done it.

Needless to say, I don't date much.
By: catgrin
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
Eye candy. makes good tv.
By: RedFez
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
disclaimer: this posting is not SYMPATHETIC to astrology; with that said:

aside from no actual astrological constructs at play, this experiment does NOT disprove astrology works. why? because (statistically speaking) out of the sample size (n = 5) most of the respondents STILL AGREED IT WORKED; that the reading was accurate (because it was accurate -- despite being duped).

also, do yourself a favor and please consider how the sample was obtained -- probably through interviews (keyword = interviews). therefore, the sample was probably predisposed towards selecting those of whom (like experimenters like to do -- its called being biased -- and is not scientific).

my point is that this study was SEEMINGLY overly biased to pick out like-minded individuals with similar interests and characterizations THAT CONVENIENTLY APPLY TO ALL 5 PRESENT IN THE STUDY (minus one DUDE).

in other words, be cautious about STUDIES AS SUCH, because they tend to have a biased approach towards proving what they want WITHOUT INCLUDING ENOUGH VARIABLES, which essentially THREATENS ALL RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY (or lack thereof).

HA! i just effectively DEBUNKED derren's feeble attempt to sway public opinion with this POS study with the media's typical rhetoric of 'smoke and mirrors'

think critically for your selves people and you shall be liberated.
By: per0xIde
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
Right, but doesn't really apply to the clip.

Actually, if I understood it right, this clip was about cold reading rather than about astrology. The headline might be misleading.

I have not seen the whole show, but in the end of the clip he says he used cold reading, which could only be used to find the persons his letters applied to, as those were written in advance. What you characterized as flaws was actually what was supposed to happen.

It wasn't a "study" about astrology, it was just a way to show off cold reading skills, probably to debunk those "talking to the dead" maniacs.
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
He told them it was cold reading. Then he told them he'd written those pages months ago. It wasn't cold reading, it was more like horoscope writing.

But really, it's not a study. It's entertainment. And a visceral demonstration that will stick. Now those people, and we viewers can never again read a horoscope without thinking of this funny punch-in-the-gut video.

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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
Although i disagree with the bulk of what you say, and the conclusions you make, i think you bring up an interesting point.

I dont know exactly how cold reading works, but i would imagine that it would be a lot easier to create a singular "cold reading statement" (as in this clip) for people of a similar age than one for a wide range of ages.

But then again thats probably why typical generalised astrology readings that you find in newspapers, magazines and such are so vague - whereas a tarot card reader for instance can present a more bespoke reading because they can see how old you are, and therefore better deduce your lifestyle, expectations, fears, hopes etc.

At the end of the day though, as we say in the UK, it a load of old bollocks!
By: gypo
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
The astrological construct at play was the inclusion of the person's birthday, which is key to astrology. Secondly, n did not equal 5, it was actually 10, 15, whatever. Just cause they went in groups of 5 doesn't mean that n=5. Thirdly, your assertion that the info was obtained by interviews is without any basis. Besides, cold readers don't need to interview people to pull off their tricks, so why would they.

That being said, yeah, this experiment didn't 'scientifically disprove' anything. However, it did provide a reasonable, logical, and demonstrable alternative to the claims of astrology. Not proof in the purest form, but enough to get you to discard 'magic stars and planets' as a belief system.
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
Yes the possiblity of interveiws is there. But on the other hand there is no basis to say he did.

N=5 because there could have been three different essays for three different groups, but it could still be 10 or 15. again there is no basis to say that there were 3 different essays.

per0oxide's point is don't trust whatever Derren Browns says because he says he is using science. Do it for your self. Its not hard. And i bet you will find that Derren is right.
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
Okay, once again, n does not equal 5. Just cause he uses groups of 5, or different papers (in different languages even) does not mean that the results are exclusive from each other in this experiment. Same experiment with the same controls, same biases, whatever, means that they can all be part of the sample size and n does indeed equal more than 5. ANYWAYS, yeah, I'm pretty sure I understand all the points on this post, um, do you? I agreed with peroxide that Derren wasn't being completely scientific, but went on to say that what he was saying just makes sense, way more than the gobbledygook astrologers will try to sell you. So your point was?
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
It's stated by the translator that there is one essay that was given to the people in three locations.
By: catgrin
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
You have completely missed the point. This video does not claim to be an "experiment" or a "study." It is simply a demonstration of the Forer Effect, which plays a strong part (some would say the only part) in the "success" of astrology, cold reading, tarot cards, and other types of fortune telling.

I've seen many other demonstrations of the Forer Effect, and these results are not unusual. Your assertion (without evidence) that the subjects were hand-picked to match the pre-written reading is laughable.

Also, you might want to try to learn to count higher than five.
By: quisph
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
"This video does not claim to be an "experiment" or a "study..."

- you got me there -- IF YOU WANT TO QUIBBLE ABOUT SEMANTICS? when in fact this "demonstration" was completely an experiment/study in every sense of the definition; minus the construct validity and reliability. but because the bible says, i mean because derren says, or should i say BECAUSE YOU SAY? i say: i'll think for myself thankyou.

"Your assertion (without evidence) that the subjects were hand-picked to match..."

- whoa, never did i 'assert'; rather, i specifically stated that the sample was 'probabaly' hand picked AS THESE MADE-FOR-TV "DEMONSTRATIONS" ARE LIKELY TO DO.

"Also, you might want to try to learn to count higher than five..."

1aside from your wittless insult, indeed i can count higher than 5 -- with both shoes off i can count to 20 -- in the shower i can count to 21, so there! (i can be a good sport).

this place cracks me up
By: per0xIde
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
The difference between a scientific study and a scientific demonstration is not merely semantic. It's the difference between what the journal Nature does, and what Bill Nye does. Do you troll Bill Nye fan forums, too?

Derren Brown, like Bill Nye, is not trying to prove anything; he is simply trying to educate people about what has already been discovered by science -- in this case, the Forer Effect. It is therefore pointless to criticize this video unless you are denying that the Forer Effect exists. *Even if astrology really works,* it is still a good thing to make people aware that an *apparently* accurate reading is not necessarily attributable to astrology alone, or at all.

Finally, you neglected to quote the key part of my criticism. You asserted not just that the subjects were probably hand-picked (which is likely), but that they were hand-picked *specifically* for the purpose of rigging the demonstration (as opposed to being picked simply because they look good on TV). That's where you go too far.

The idea that someone would *need* to hand-pick subjects to get these results is amusing to me. But like I said, I've seen many demonstrations of the Forer Effect, and yes, that includes actual peer-reviewed scientific studies with large, properly randomized samples. It really does work, just as powerfully as you see in the video. I don't know why you are so eager to believe otherwise.
By: quisph
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
I think perhaps you're responding more to the title "Derren Brown Debunks Astrology" than to the actual content of the video. Note that the title is arbitrarily applied by whoever posted the video, not by the original producers of the segment. If you'll go back and watch, you'll see that the point being made isn't one of "Astrology itself is debunked" but rather, "This is what and how successful cold readings are." It's an introduction to the concept.

Yes the sample is a similar group of people. (It's actually 15 not 5 as the same profile was supplied to all three groups). That's only relevant in that cold readers determine what they will say to a person by physical attributes and discovered knowledge. For example, if a woman shows up at a palm reader's in her mid-forties and dressed all in black, the reader will assume a recent death - either of a parent or her husband. If it's a child with a single parent, it's assumed to be the father/spouse. Generalizations and similarities are the cold reader's bread and butter, so your "point" is a moot one. It makes no difference that there's an age similarity, because using age as a determining factor is part of a cold reading.

This is a demonstation - not a study. Recorded studies exist, and are easily searched on the web. This was never presented as a study, and you do yourself a disservice by assigning it that definition. The hardest part of debunking those who cheat others using this and similar methods is that their victims are so desperate to believe that even with overwhelming evidence of a scam, they'll close their eyes, shake their heads, stamp their feet and say, "I don't care if it's a lie. It's what I want to believe."

With no intended disrespect, I suggest you watch the video again (to confirm that it really is just a demonstration, and that one message was given to all 15 people), and then do some surfing to examine the long history of people who have spent - literally - centuries debunking charlitans who would prey on people in need of support.
By: catgrin
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
i totally agree with Kampfflummi, as he did say that all the readings with all the people from england spain and the america all had the same "script" if know what i'm trying to say.

I suggest watching "Derren Brown's - Messiah" available on this site

http://www.tv-links.co.uk/listings/1/2815

This also has his tv show and some other things he's done on it.
By: D3NIS
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
Does anyone know where I could find a copy of that personality profile script Derren gave back to his participates?

By: nycpauly
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Re: Derren Brown Debunks Astrology
It's in his 2006 book 'Tricks of the Mind'
By: Commenter
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